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Career Outlook

National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC's Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Social Workers) is part of a larger occupational group called Psychologists, Social Workers, Counsellors, Clergy and Probation Officers (NOC 415).


Occupations in this group

Psychologists (4151)
Social Workers(4151)
Family, Marriage and Other Related Counsellors (1233)
Ministers of Religion (4154)
Probation and Parole Officers and Related Occupations (4155)
Customs, Ship and Other Brokers (1236)
Employment (non-student) in 2010 150,358
Median Age of workers in 2010 44
Average Retirement Age in 2010 62

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2008-2010 period, this occupation experienced strong employment growth, continuing a trend observed for more than 20 years. This sustained employment growth is particularly due to the strong demand for social workers. Unemployment in this occupation has remained stable at a fairly low rate (2.4% in 2010). Finally, the increase in the average hourly wage was less than the average for all occupations. Moreover, in comparison to other occupations requiring a university diploma, the wage was not particularly high. According to key labour market indicators, the number of job seekers was sufficient to fill job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected number of job openings is significantly greater than the projected number of job seekers. An occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected number of job openings is smaller than the projected number of job seekers. For Psychologists, Social Workers, Counsellors, Clergy And Probation Officers, over the 2011-2020 period, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 77,529 and 68,988 job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill the job openings.

Based on projections and considering that labour supply and demand in this occupation were balanced, it is expected that the number of job seekers will remain sufficient to fill job openings over the 2011-2020 period. The annual difference between supply and demand is very small, representing only 0.6% of employment in 2010. Job openings will arise from both strong employment growth and from retirement. Positions left vacant due to retirement will nevertheless represent the majority of available jobs. Given that workers in this occupation are generally older than the average but typically retire at the same age as those in other occupations, the retirement rate in this occupation is above the average. Expansion demand will also be a significant source of job openings over this period. In particular, employment growth will continue to result from an increase in demand for social workers (main occupation of NOC 415). These jobs will be created to respond to the needs of the aging population. In terms of supply, job seekers will come primarily from the school system. However, there will be a relatively large number of job seekers from other occupations. The majority of them will have studied social work, psychology or another field related to this occupation, but will have started their career in other occupations such as paralegal, social services worker and occupations in education and religion (NOC 421).

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.


Table of job opening projections for the occupational group containing your chosen occupation.
Category Openings %
Expansion Demand 31,725 41%
Retirements 36,557 47%
Other Replacement Demand 5,705 7%
Emigration 3,543 5%
Projected Job Openings 77,529 100%
 
Category Seekers %
School Leavers 43,800 63%
Immigration 4,192 6%
Net Mobility 20,996 30%
Projected Job Seekers 68,988 100%


In which industry or sector do people in this occupation find jobs in Canada?

This table shows the industry and sectors employing the highest number of people in this occupation.

 
Industry / Sector %
Health care and social assistance 73.60%
Public administration 16.00
Other services (except public administration) 4.80
Educational services 3.40

[Source:2006 Census - Statistics Canada|Legal note]

What percentage of people in this occupation are self-employed?

The graph displays the percentage of people in this occupation who are "self-employed", according to the 2006 Census, in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

As shown in the graph, according to the 2006 Census, 3% of people in this occupation were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 12%.

The Labour Force Survey also gives us some information about self-employment. This occupation (Social Workers) is part of a larger group called Psychologists, Social Workers, Counsellors, Clergy and Probation Officers (NOC 415). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 12% of workers in this group were self-employed, while the average for all occupations was 16%.

What proportion of people in this occupation work full-time and part-time?

The graph displays the proportion of people in this occupation who worked full-time and part-time in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 86% of workers in this occupation worked full-time, compared to the average of 81% for all occupations.

[ Source:Labour Force Survey - Statistics Canada|Legal note]

What proportion of men and women work in this occupation?

The graph displays the proportion of men and women in this occupation in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), women represented 85% of workers in this occupation, compared to the average of 48% for all occupations.

[ Source:2006 Census - Statistics Canada/Labour Force Survey - Statistics Canada|Legal note]

What percentage of people in this occupation are members of a union?

This occupation (Social Workers) is part of a larger group called Psychologists, Social Workers, Counsellors, Clergy and Probation Officers (NOC 415). According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), the unionization rate for this group was 53%, while the unionization rate for all occupations was 31%.

[Source:Labour Force Survey - Statistics Canada|Legal note]


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