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Career Outlook

National Outlook – 10-Year Projection (2011-2020)

This section provides labour demand and labour supply projections for this occupation over the 2011-2020 period.

Note: The tables, graphs and middle paragraph shown under this section display updated 2011-2020 projection results. The remaining narrative text (2009-2018 projections) will be updated shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The data in the following table are derived from HRSDC's Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). COPS uses a variety of models to produce a detailed 10-year labour market projection per broad skill level and per occupation at the national level, which focuses on the trends of labour supply and labour demand over the next ten years.

This occupation (Medical Secretaries) is part of a larger occupational group called Secretaries, Recorders and Transcriptionists (NOC 124).


Table on the demographic profile for your chosen occupation at the national level.

Occupations in this group Secretaries (Except Legal and Medical) (1241)
Legal Secretaries (1242)
Medical Secretaries (1243)
Court Recorders and Medical Transcriptionists (1244)
Employment (non-student) in 2010 180,010
Median Age of workers in 2010 46
Average Retirement Age in 2010 61

Occupation Projection for Canada

Over the 2006 2008 period, this occupation experienced no employment growth, a slight increase in unemployment and a small rise in wages. This follows a significant decline in employment which began in the early 1990s following the introduction of new technologies, which revolutionized secretarial work, and the specialization of administrative duties. If not for the very large number of workers who left this occupation for other prospects, the unemployment rate would have climbed even higher. Nevertheless, in 2008 it fell within the average for all occupations. Consequently, the key labour market indicators and the high degree of mobility toward other occupations show that job seekers exceeded job openings in this occupation.

Over the 2011-2020 period, an occupation will be in excess demand (a shortage of workers) if the projected job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are greater than the projected job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility), while an occupation will be in excess supply (a surplus of workers) if the projected job seekers are greater than the projected job openings. For Secretaries, Recorders And Transcriptionists, over the period of 2011-2020, job openings are expected to total 73,950. It is expected that 21,156 job seekers will be available to fill these job openings.

Based on these projections, which forecast an excess demand, and considering the recent surplus of workers in this occupation, labour demand and supply in this occupation should return to balance during the 2009 2018 period. Past excess supply will be offset by future excess demand. Job openings will result exclusively from replacement needs, especially from the need to replace workers who retire. Expansion demand will negatively impact labour requirements; in other words, job losses will occur throughout the projection period. Therefore, the decline in employment which began in the early 1990s will continue throughout the projection period. Nevertheless, job openings will be strong as a result of the very high retirement rate. The retirement rate for secretaries, recorders and transcriptionists will be among the highest for all occupations, primarily because workers in this occupation are generally much older than the average. In addition, despite the continuing decline in this occupation, labour market conditions, slightly better than in the past, will lead to a sharp fall in the number of workers leaving this occupation for another. Finally, the number of job seekers coming mainly from the school system will decline in relation to the 1999 2008 period, resulting in fewer new job seekers over the next few years to meet the increase in job openings.

This Chart contains data for Projection of Job Openings vs. Job Seekers for Canada. Information is available in the following tables.
Accounting and Payroll Administrator

Category Openings %
Expansion Demand -13,745 19%
Retirements 77,365 105%
Deaths 6,755 9%
Emigration 3,575 5%
Projected Job Openings 3,575 100%


Table of job seeker projections for the occupational group containing your chosen occupation.
Category Seekers %
School Leavers 11,221 21%
Immigration 1,952 4%
Net Mobility 39,074 75%
Projected Job Seekers 52,247 100%


What proportion of men and women work in this occupation?

The graph displays the proportion of people in this occupation who worked full-time and part-time in comparison to the Canadian average across all occupations.

According to the Labour Force Survey (2009), 77% of workers in this occupation worked full-time, compared to the average of 81% for all occupations..

Accounting and Payroll Administrator


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